October Week 2 - 2024

BITCOIN RESET
HBO’s New Documentary Tackles the Mystery of Satoshi Nakamoto

HBO's upcoming documentary, Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, directed by Cullen Hoback, is aiming to solve one of the greatest puzzles of the digital age: the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin. The project has sparked intense speculation in the crypto world, with some now betting that Leonard “Len” Sassaman, a late cryptographer and privacy advocate, may be revealed as the enigmatic figure behind Bitcoin.

Sassaman, a well-known figure in the cypherpunk community, made significant contributions to cryptography and privacy technologies before his tragic death in 2011. Some in the crypto space believe Sassaman could be Satoshi, pointing to the timing of his death and Nakamoto’s final public communication. Nakamoto disappeared from the Bitcoin community in April 2011, just two months before Sassaman’s death.

Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, has seen a surge of bets favoring Sassaman as Nakamoto, with other candidates like Hal Finney and Adam Back also being considered. Sassaman’s connections to key figures in the early Bitcoin movement, like Finney, and his work on privacy technologies that preceded Bitcoin, fuel the speculation. Notably, his work on solving the Byzantine Fault problem—a core challenge for decentralized networks—adds to the theory that he could have been involved in the development of Bitcoin’s blockchain.

However, not everyone is convinced. Sassaman’s widow has publicly stated that she does not believe her husband was Nakamoto. As the documentary's release approaches, the intrigue around this long-standing mystery continues to grow, with the crypto world eager to see whether Money Electric will provide definitive answers.

CRYPTO RESET
Optimism About U.S. Job Market and Its Ripple Effect on Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin

Recent strength in the U.S. job market has sparked optimism not only in traditional markets but also within the cryptocurrency space, particularly for Bitcoin. Economist and trader Alex Krüger recently revised his Bitcoin price forecast upward, citing the robust September jobs report, which revealed a payroll increase of 254,000 and a dip in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Krüger now expects Bitcoin to reach $65,000 to $68,000 by election night, up from his earlier forecast of $62,000 to $65,000.

The strong labor market data signals that the U.S. economy is far from a recession, which has prompted further confidence in U.S. equities. As Krüger noted, Bitcoin is likely to follow the momentum of equities, with the potential for new all-time highs in both markets. This optimistic outlook is further supported by wage growth, which rose 0.4% month-over-month and 4% year-over-year, boosting consumer confidence and spending.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s anticipated easing cycle could provide more fuel for the crypto market. As the Fed begins gradually cutting interest rates, financial conditions are expected to loosen, making risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors. This shift in monetary policy, combined with a resilient U.S. economy, sets the stage for what many are calling a “Crypto Christmas,” with Bitcoin potentially seeing significant gains as year-end approaches.

Krüger and other analysts believe that if these bullish factors align—strong labor market, rising equities, and Fed rate cuts—Q4 could be a breakout period for Bitcoin. However, potential risks remain, such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could introduce volatility.

Overall, the convergence of a strong U.S. job market and favorable monetary conditions is positioning Bitcoin for a strong finish to the year, potentially marking the beginning of another bull cycle.

MONEY RESET
UBS Predicts U.S. Economy is on the Verge of Another Roaring '20s

UBS, the Swiss financial giant, has signaled that the U.S. economy may be heading towards a prosperous period akin to the Roaring ’20s of the last century. UBS’s head of asset allocation for the Americas, Jason Draho, suggests that the likelihood of this economic boom is about 50%. With strong GDP growth, inflation under control, and favorable monetary policy, Draho argues that many factors are aligning to create the foundation for a new era of American economic prosperity.

The original Roaring ’20s saw the mass adoption of electricity and automobiles, alongside a postwar consumption boom. Today’s economy, while facing concerns like inflation and unemployment, has similarly transformative forces at play, including advances in technology and supportive fiscal policies.

Draho believes the U.S. is already in a Roaring ’20s-like environment, with the question shifting from “if” to “how long” this prosperity will last. Recent data supports this optimism, with GDP growth reaching 3% in Q2 2024 and inflation holding steady at 2.5%. While unemployment remains a concern, Draho notes that the Federal Reserve’s actions, such as its recent rate cuts, are helping balance inflation and employment, paving the way for continued growth.

While challenges remain, including geopolitical risks and the potential for higher unemployment, UBS’s outlook reflects growing confidence in the U.S. economy’s resilience. If trends continue, Americans may experience another era of unprecedented growth, with even the most pessimistic investors starting to see a bright future by early 2025.

DISCLAIMER:
This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions or investments. Please be careful and do your own research.